Good morning, Mark Iype in Edmonton today.
It has been a busy week in Alberta politics as we head toward Canada Day. There was talk of political interference in the murky hiring and un-hiring of former provincial chief medical officer of health Deena Hinshaw at the start of the week and rustling from the right flank of the United Conservative Party by Take Back Alberta and its leader Dave Parker at mid-week. By Thursday, all eyes turned to the province’s newest Finance Minister, Nate Horner.
Exactly one month after the UCP led by Premier Danielle Smith won a second consecutive majority government, Mr. Horner stepped up to a podium and delivered the final figures for the 2022-23 budget year, which ended March 31.
And that was all good news. There was a record $11.6-billion surplus and the province’s highest ever non-renewable resource and corporate income-tax revenues with the Finance Minister calling it “one of the most positive fiscal years in our province’s history.”
Of course, as The Globe and Mail’s Kelly Cryderman pointed out, Mr. Horner then mostly side-stepped questions about the current fiscal year.
With volatile energy markets continuing to be the main driver of Alberta’s economy, the postpandemic bounceback might be facing some headwinds. While international events such as the continuing war in Ukraine would normally push prices higher, Rystad Energy said this month that “despite expectations of a looming oil-market deficit, prices have remained surprisingly low.”
West Texas Intermediate oil was priced at just under US$70 a barrel on Thursday, a far cry from the near $80 a barrel forecast that the government has for the 2023-24 fiscal year. For a government that made some big promises around taxes during the election campaign, the price differential could spell trouble.
“[The oil forecast] may have to come down,”Mr. Horner said in Calgary on Thursday. “We’re not as worried as you may think.”
In a province that carefully watches the price of oil, he may be playing down what could be a difficult year ahead, especially if the UCP intends to keep its election-campaign promises on spending and taxes. And with Statistics Canada showing record numbers of people moving to the province from both within Canada and abroad, making sure there is quality education and health care for all is a growing challenge.
But if there is one thing Mr. Horner has on his side, it’s history.
The great-grandson and grandson of prominent Alberta politicians, not to mention cousin Doug, a former finance minister himself, the name Horner is well known in the provincial political world. Mr. Horner may have to dig deep into that well of familial resources for advice on how to navigate choppy economic waters.
This is the weekly Western Canada newsletter written by BC Editor Wendy Cox and Alberta Bureau Chief Mark Iype. If you’re reading this on the web, or it was forwarded to you from someone else, you can sign up for it and all Globe newsletters here.