Electric vehicle battery recycling faces new hurdles
New research by consultancy CES challenges the common assumption that electric vehicle (EV) batteries have a short lifespan, typically between four and 15 years. Instead, the report finds that EVs and their battery packs can remain in service for more than 20 years.
This discovery has significant implications for recyclers, carmakers, and policymakers, who have based their long-term strategies on earlier forecasts. The consultancy argues that these assumptions have shaped investment decisions across the automotive recycling chain for over a decade.
Europe’s battery recycling sector has expanded well ahead of available feedstock, with similar trends emerging in North America and China. As a result, CES expects meaningful recycling volumes to emerge only during the mid-2030s.
One key factor contributing to the extended lifespan of EV batteries is the fact that many batteries remain inside vehicles for much longer than expected. Private EVs, for example, complete fewer than one full charging cycle each week, while larger battery packs reduce annual wear despite increasing mileage.
Exports play a major role, with CES estimating that 37.6% of European EVs, 42.4% in the United States, and 34.4% in China are exported before reaching end of life. This means that valuable batteries remain in service abroad instead of entering domestic recycling streams.
Rather than building additional processing capacity, CES believes recyclers should strengthen upstream services, such as logistics, battery handling, pre-processing, warranty support, and preparation for reuse. These services generate revenue before batteries reach recycling plants.
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CES also argues that recyclers should work more closely with dismantlers, repair specialists, insurers, and remanufacturers to retain value. By doing so, they can encourage dismantlers and repurposing companies to recover batteries instead of exporting entire vehicles.
Understanding the true lifespan of EV batteries is essential for creating effective recycling strategies. This knowledge can help recyclers, carmakers, and policymakers make more informed decisions about how to manage the growing number of EVs on the road.
Many battery regulations were developed using overly conservative lifespan assumptions, which contributed to ambitious recycling targets and significant investment in recycling infrastructure. CES argues that vehicle manufacturers should now prioritize improving residual values over closed-loop material recovery.
Policymakers should consider how exports reshape battery availability and recognize the close links between recycling, repair, reuse, and remanufacturing. They can help create a more sustainable and efficient circular economy by adopting a more informed approach to battery recycling.
CES’s report is a significant step forward in understanding the lifespan of EV batteries.
According to CES, understanding how long EV batteries remain in service is essential for everyone involved in the circular economy.
