Record El Nino Sparks Floods Drought Across Asia
Weather forecasters say the El Nino weather pattern intensifying in the Pacific Ocean looks set to be the strongest ever observed and could make both this year and 2027 the hottest ever recorded. The prediction, made by the director of the European Union’s climate monitor, is no surprise as forecasters have warned for weeks that this weather pattern could be unusually powerful and dangerous.
El Nino is expected to increase droughts and flooding in many countries, with forecasters and risk analysts predicting severe impacts on countries across Asia, Africa, the Americas, and beyond. Climate scientists, such as Professor Michael Greenstone, one of the founders of the Climate Impact Lab, warned last month that 451,000 excess heat-related deaths could be caused between June this year and February 2027 because of a stronger El Nino turbo-charging global warming.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service said sea surface temperatures in the El Nino monitoring region in the Pacific – a block of water known as Nino3.4 – reached an “all-time high” of 29.7C last month. This exceeded the peak temperatures of previously strong El Nino events of 1982/1983, 1997/1998, and 2015/2016, the EU monitor said.
Countries already hit
The Super El Nino has been a topic of debate among financiers, climate activists, and journalists who have flown into Bangkok over the past week for the annual World Bank and IMF meetings. At one event, risks from the weather phenomenon were clearly illustrated with a video showing global wind patterns and the effects that the greater heat generated by this climate system could have on agriculture and trade in Asian nations.
They ranged from a dramatic increase in temperatures in cities or regions across Thailand in the first two to three quarters of 2027; a rise in heavy downpours and flooding in southern China; less rainfall and possible drought and power shortages in southern Vietnam, plus the threat of drought and water shortages in rice-growing areas in the Philippines in the first half of next year. There is also a heightened risk of hurricanes on the US west coast, because of the likelihood of more intense westerly winds.
The impacts of El Nino have already begun, with wildfires raging across forests and peatlands in two of the biggest islands in the Indonesian archipelago – Kalimantan and Sumatra, which has forced schools and other services to be shut down in Malaysia and Singapore. And India has endured the weakest wet season, or monsoon, in nearly two decades. Food and beverage prices caused inflation to rise sharply in September.
Meanwhile, officials in Panama imposed a national emergency in August after realizing that another El Nino could be a major crisis if it dries up Lake Gatun, the source of water allowing ships to transit through the 65km system of locks that vessels take to get from the Atlantic to the Pacific Ocean (or vice-versa). If those water sources dry up, or cause a significant delay to transit times, it would hit US-China trade and imports heading to the US east coast.
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The World Bank and IMF are working to address the high debt levels plaguing many developing countries through a range of initiatives, including efforts to boost countries’ domestic revenue collection. Many countries, such as those in the Vulnerable Twenty group, want to pause debt repayments or shift to more flexible debt repayment procedures because of the constraints it puts on their public finances and services.
The advisor’s statement highlights the potential long-term effects of climate-related disasters on a country’s economy and infrastructure.
As the situation continues to unfold, the impacts of El Nino will be felt across multiple sectors, from agriculture to trade. The World Bank president, Ajay Banga, told Reuters that officials from 30 to 40 countries had discussed potential crisis aid to help them manage energy shocks and price increases triggered by the war in the Middle East.
Carlo Buontempo, director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, stated that temperatures would probably remain 1.5C above normal into early next year.
Global trade concerns
Conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have disrupted exports of oil, gas, wheat, and other goods, worsening food shortages and debt concerns.
A spike in diesel and fertilizer prices, plus the Super El Niño weather pattern, are adding to challenges that developing countries face, according to World Bank president Ajay Banga.
The glacial collapse in Nepal is likely to cost at least $4 billion to rebuild.
